STORM PREDICTION CENTER

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK      NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK    0645 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2011        VALID 031300Z - 041200Z        ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...        ...SYNOPSIS...        STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH ERN NM/WRN TX WILL    WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY TODAY WITHIN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT MIDLEVEL    FLOW REGIME OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID MO VALLEY.  MEANWHILE...    POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER SRN NV WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SWD    THROUGH THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE    OVER W-CNTRL TX WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY NNEWD ALONG RETREATING SURFACE    FRONT IN THE LOWER MO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING...BEFORE REACHING THE    UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 04/12Z.  AS THIS OCCURS...TRAILING COLD FRONT    WILL SETTLE SWD/SEWD THROUGH OK AND WRN/NRN TX.        ...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...        DCVA AND AN AXIS OF 7.0-7.5 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PRECEDING SRN    HIGH PLAINS IMPULSE HAVE COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM    AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME TO FOSTER A BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS    WHICH EXTENDED FROM SWRN KS TO W-CNTRL TX AS OF 12Z.  LATEST    CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS    ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS SRN KS...OK AND NRN AND    CNTRL TX TODAY INTO TONIGHT.        IT DOES APPEAR THAT PERHAPS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED    SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS PEAKING AT THIS TIME OVER THE TX BIG COUNTRY    AS THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING ATTENDANT TO THE MIDLEVEL    IMPULSE GLANCES THE HIGHER PW AIR MASS RETURNING NWD THROUGH TX.     MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST    STORMS THIS MORNING.  BY AFTERNOON...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE    POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN TX/SRN OK WHERE POCKETS OF WEAK    INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER    THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY DECREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE VERY    MARGINAL INSTABILITY.        ...AZ...        THOUGH AIR MASS HAS DRIED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF LEAD    SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE E...FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RESULTANT    STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN ADVANCE OF GREAT BASIN SYSTEM    WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY LATER TODAY.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY    SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG FAVORED TERRAIN THIS    AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.        ..MEAD/SMITH.. 12/03/2011        CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT     NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z    CURRENT UTC TIME: 1538Z (3:38PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME