Solar Flare News

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Mar 22 22:00 UTC

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low during days 1 - 3 (23 - 25 March) with a chance for an M-class flare from Region 1176.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day 1 (23 March). An increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected during days 2 - 3 (24 - 25 March) 2011 as a coronal hole high-speed stream disturbs the field.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2011 Mar 22 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels. Isolated C-class
flares occurred, the largest of which was a C3 at 22/0337Z from
Region 1176 (S14E68). Region 1176 was a Dho-type spot group with a
beta magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 3 (23 - 25 March) with a chance for an M-class flare
from Region 1176.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at
21/1950Z reached a maximum flux of 14 pfu at 22/0130Z and ended at
22/0335Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day 1 (23 March). An
increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected during days 2 - 3
(24 - 25 March) as a coronal hole high-speed stream disturbs the
field.

III.  Event Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Mar 100
Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar  105/110/115
90 Day Mean        22 Mar 095

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  005/005-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01