Geological upheaval risks now increasing for Indonesia

May 27, 2011 –PORONG, Indonesia – “Lusi” the mud volcano is slowing down five years after it engulfed fields, homes and factories in a heavily populated part of Indonesia, but experts say the danger may last for decades. Some 40,000 people who have been forced out of their homes by the inexorable ooze, which appeared without warning on May 29, 2006 in the middle of a rice field. Gradually, the mud has swallowed 12 villages, 30 factories, dozens of shops and a busy highway near the country’s second largest city of Surabaya. Twelve people have been killed, but many more lives have been wrecked. As the mud continues to flow, a row over its cause also festers with some experts and victims accusing a local gas drilling company of sparking the torrent – an allegation it denies. The government’s response to the crisis was at first sluggish, before it eventually built 20 kilometres (12 miles) of dykes to contain the mud. But the measure failed and, as the mud surged over the barriers, they had to be reinforced. They now stand 10 metres (33 feet) tall. “That should be enough,” said Soffian Hadi, who oversees operations in the Office of Disaster Management. “The eruption has declined significantly in the last few months, from a maximum of 180,000 cubic meters (6.4 million cubic feet) per day to around 10,000 today.” Richard Davies, a geologist at Durham University in the United Kingdom who has studied the volcano, agrees that the “worst is over. It seems that the pressure is diminishing. That’s positive,” he said. But when will Lusi stop? International experts who met Thursday in Surabaya were cautiously estimating it could keep flowing anywhere from a few years, to up to 80 years. Without further studies “it will be very difficult to predict with any accuracy the likely future duration and activity of Lusi,” said Humanitus, an Australian non-governmental organization that supports victims of the mud flow. It said ongoing risks included “bubbles of flammable, odorless and poisonous gases”, land subsidence in villages around the levee, and poor air quality from “potentially hazardous gases.” Besides the 13,000 families directly affected and covered by the compensation scheme, many thousands of local residents are demanding payment for economic damage. “The water from our well is polluted, the air we breathe is bad, the walls of the house are cracked and no one wants to buy the products we grow,” complained Sulastri, 34, whose brick shack is only 200 meters from the dyke. The company is part of the massive business empire controlled by the family of a powerful Golkar political party chief Aburizal Bakrie. Bakrie has found no shortage of geologists willing to back up its claims that an earthquake some 250 kilometres away was the cause of the volcano. “There is no doubt for me that it’s not a natural volcano. We are 99 per cent certain that the drilling is responsible,” he said. –Asia One

Geological risks increasing: The geography of Indonesia is dominated by volcanoes that are formed due to subduction zones between the Eurasian plate and the Indo-Australian plate. The recent seismic upheaval we have seen in Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Kermadec and Tonga, New Zealand and the occasional seismic disturbance in Australia underscores the perilous risks which are increasing for countries along the Indo-Australian Plate, particularly Indonesia. In the past 24 hours in Indonesia, there has been a 5.6 quake in the Flores region, a 4.6 quake in the Nias region, a 4.9 in Halmahera, a 5.2 in Minahasa, Sulawesi, and a 4.7 in Northern Sumatra. Besides the Lake Toba super-volcano, Indonesia, there are about 130 active volcanoes. They are restless due to the geology of the archipelago and the increased seismic tension reverberating from tectonic plate agitation. One day there will be multiple cascading eruptions. On 1st May, 46 deep earthquakes and 6 shallow earthquakes shook the Gamkonora volcano. Merapi and Singabung volcanoes are also stirring. video (c) Al Jazeera