3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Mar 22 22:00 UTC
Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low during days 1 - 3 (23 - 25 March) with a chance for an M-class flare from Region 1176.
Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day 1 (23 March). An increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected during days 2 - 3 (24 - 25 March) 2011 as a coronal hole high-speed stream disturbs the field.
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2011 Mar 22 2200 UTCJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. Isolated C-class
flares occurred, the largest of which was a C3 at 22/0337Z from
Region 1176 (S14E68). Region 1176 was a Dho-type spot group with a
beta magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 3 (23 - 25 March) with a chance for an M-class flare
from Region 1176.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at
21/1950Z reached a maximum flux of 14 pfu at 22/0130Z and ended at
22/0335Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day 1 (23 March). An
increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected during days 2 - 3
(24 - 25 March) as a coronal hole high-speed stream disturbs the
field.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 100
Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 105/110/115
90 Day Mean 22 Mar 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 005/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
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